Dr. Black had a link to foreclosures in Irvine, California. This one especially caught my eye:
5031 Alcorn Lane, Turtle Rock
Amount owed: $298,876.14
Last sale: July 2001, $485,000
Auction date & time: Nov. 5 at 10 a.m.
Location: In front of the flagpoles at Placentia Civic Center, 401-411 E. Chapman Ave.
Trustee sale #: JPM-580
Information: 714-573-1965 [emphasis mine]
I assume the JPM means JPMorganChase, though that's not the important thing.
If you look at the other houses, the "last sale" and "amount owed" values are fairly close, or the Amount Owed is higher. Which is what you would expect.
But not only is this one not higher, it's not even close. It's almost a 40% decline from the last sale date—and more than a $185,000 difference. And 2001 wasn't exactly top of the bubble anywhere, especially not in Irvine.
Why does a house get foreclosed? Because it can't be sold to cover costs adequately. But in this case, we're not even talking about needing a short sale.
No one was willing and able to bid enough on the property to keep it from being foreclosed.
Nearly 40% below 2001 levels would be severe. The Shiller Real Home Price Index indicates that prices are just about even with (maybe 2% below) their 2001 level.
Either this is a real outlier, or the housing crisis is much worse than even the most pessimistic predictions.
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